Artificial intelligence platform Grok AI has predicted that Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke will narrowly win Saturday’s governorship election, placing him ahead of the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, and African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Najeem Salaam.
Grok made the prediction on Friday, August 14, 2026, describing the August 15 election as a closely fought three-way contest.
The AI platform nevertheless gave Adeleke an advantage, pointing to prediction market pricing that placed the incumbent’s chances at around 69%.
The prediction has added to the growing discussion about the likely outcome of the election, which has emerged as one of the most competitive governorship contests in recent Osun history.
However, Grok also referenced another poll that placed the APC slightly ahead of Adeleke’s Accord Party, indicating that Oyebamiji still has a realistic chance of defeating the incumbent.
The conflicting indicators suggest that the election remains difficult to call, with neither of the leading candidates enjoying an overwhelming advantage ahead of voting.
Three Candidates Dominate Osun Race
Although several candidates are contesting the election, the race has largely centred on Adeleke, Oyebamiji and Salaam.
Adeleke, who won the 2022 Osun governorship election, is seeking another term as governor.
Oyebamiji is campaigning to return the governorship to the APC after the party lost the seat to Adeleke in 2022.
Meanwhile, Najeem Salaam, a former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, is presenting himself as a third-force candidate capable of upsetting the two leading contenders.
More than 1.9 million registered voters with Permanent Voter Cards are eligible to participate in the election across Osun State’s 30 local government areas.
Grok’s assessment gives Adeleke an edge but does not suggest that the outcome is certain, noting that the available indicators point to a competitive contest.
Ultimately, the winner will be determined by the votes cast by residents of Osun State when they head to the polls on Saturday, August 15, 2026.
