Opta’s supercomputer has predicted that Paris Saint-Germain are favourites to defeat Arsenal in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League final scheduled for Saturday, May 30, at the Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary.
The final will see the French Ligue 1 champions attempt to defend their European crown, while Arsenal hope to win the competition for the first time in their history.
According to reports, it is also the first Champions League final involving two clubs from capital cities since the tournament was rebranded in 1992.
PSG’s route to the final included an inconsistent league phase campaign. The Parisians recorded wins against Atalanta, Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen before suffering setbacks against Bayern Munich and Sporting CP.
They eventually finished 11th in the 36-team standings and progressed through the playoffs after eliminating AS Monaco 5-4 on aggregate.
Luis Enrique’s side later defeated Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate, knocked out Liverpool 4-0 in the quarter-final and edged Bayern Munich 6-5 over two legs to reach the final.
Arsenal, on the other hand, enjoyed a flawless league phase, winning all eight matches, including victories over Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Inter Milan.
The Gunners finished top of the table before eliminating Bayer Leverkusen, Sporting Lisbon and Atletico Madrid to secure their place in the final.
According to Opta’s simulations, PSG have a 56 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, while Arsenal were given a 44 per cent chance.
The supercomputer also predicted PSG have a 43.5 per cent probability of winning within 90 minutes, compared to Arsenal’s 29.7 per cent, while 26.8 per cent of simulations ended in extra time or penalties.
